Stage 2 – August 30
Nice-Nice, 186km
The toughest opening weekend stage since 1979 should see a selection of maybe 40-50 riders. The first cat Cols de la Colmiane and Turini will show immediately if any favourites are off form; hopefully the descent from Turini will be tackled in safety. Then there is the Col d’zee, while a final little ascent 9km out has had Julien Alaphilippe’s name on it since the Tour was presented last October.
Stage 6 – September 3
Le Tell-Mont Aigoual, 191km
After Orcières-Merlette on Tuesday, a second tough uphill finish in three days. This is longer and steeper: first comes a 12km ascent to the Col de la Lusette, then there is a brief downhill before an 8km drag to the finish. It’s 150km until the twin climbs, so plenty of time for a break full of French riders; to get established, with the stage winner most likely a rider who has lost time on Monday: think Pierre Rolland, or Sergio Higuita, maybe a hard man like Thomas de Gendt.
Stage 8 – September 5
Cazères-sur-Garonne-Loudenvielle, 141km
This is a short but classic Pyrenean stage: two first category mountains and the super-category Port de Balès, but there’s no place for monsters like the Tourmalet or Aubisque. After Mont Aigoual a hierarchy should have been established, so a strong team such as Jumbo or Ineos should control the pace. There is a difficult descent to the finish; the overall contenders will show their strength at the end, but you’d expect a rider out of the break to win again.
Stage 13 – September 11
Châtel Guyon-Puy Mary Cantal, 191km
It’s a matter of debate whether this is the hardest stage, with seven climbs finishing on the highest pass of the Massif Central, or whether that honor goes to Méribel-Loze. One thing that is likely is that a rider in the break will take a strong option on the polka-dot best climber’s jersey. At the finish we will learn who is in form heading into the Alps. Given the constant climbing, you’d expect more control from the GC riders with the break swept up at the end: a finish for Pinot or maybe Roglic. Or Carapaz.
Stage 15 – September 13
Lyon-Grand Colombier, 175km
This has a hors-category uphill finish on a super-steep climb in the southern Jura after going up and down the Colombier massif from every side possible. There is a wealth of climbing in the second half which will make it tough for a break to make it all the way, so an overall contender such as Landa or Carapaz might win here. Given how near the end we are, this is a big test for riders like Tom Dumoulin who don’t necessarily shine on the steepest climbs.
Stage 17, September 16
Grenoble-Méribel col de la Loze, 168km
The toughest summit finish of the race, 2,304m above sea level after 21.5km climbing, with gradients of 20%, and that after an initial whittling process on the Col de la Madeleine. OK, this is harder than the Puy Mary, if more structured. By the finish today, only four or five – at a stretch – GC contenders will be left with a shout. More likely, someone like Bernal, Roglic or Carapaz will be in control. For Dumoulin, with a time trial to come, there’s a bit of margin, but not much given it’s an uphill time trial.
Stage 20, September 19
Lure-Plateau des Belles Filles, 36km time trial
The televisual dream is that three or four riders get to the start of this super steep time trial spanned by a few seconds. The French dream is that one of them is Thibaut Pinot, whose home village is on the route. The cycling fans’ profound hope will be that the race gets here more or less in one piece without leaving too much collateral damage along the way. If that’s the case, this will be a spectacular finish.